10GbE shipments will not exceed 1GbE shipments until 2014 when 10GBASE-T explodes: When the Haswell generation of servers ships in 2014, total copper 10GbE ports will grow from almost 17 million in 2013 to over 37 million in 2014. Total 10GBASE-T ports will explode in this same timeframe from just over 6 million in 2013 to over 24 million in 2014. 10GBASE-T adapter ports will finally become a strong market in 2011 and beyond, with a compound annual growth rate of 233% versus optical adapter port growth of 55% from 2010 through 2014. Further, copper 10GBASE-KR port shipments on Blade servers enable copper 10GbE to surpass optical 10GbE ports in 2010.
10GBASE-T and 10GBASE-KR Revenues to OEMs Grow Dramatically from 2009 to 2014:
10GBASE-T chip developers will finally achieve strong sales from 2011 through 2014 culminating in over $350 million in chip sales to OEMs in 2014. The compound annual growth rate of 10GBASE-T revenues will be 220%. 10GBASE-KR chip makers see strong growth early in the forecast period, but during 2011, the market shifts to an embedded PHY in the 10GbE controller chip with revenues derived from the PHY dropping dramatically. The same phenomenon also occurs for 10GBASE-T in 2014, but because the volumes grow so dramatically in 2014, revenues also grow from $132 million in 2013 to $351 million in 2014, a growth rate of 165%.All x86 servers ship with at least one CPU from either Intel or AMD, at least a few gigabytes of memory, and in almost all cases, at least one disk drive. It is hard to differentiate one OEM’s Intel or AMD CPU or memory or disk drive; consequently, the I/O (input and output) peripherals and architecture is where the money is. Over the past ten years, Fibre Channel became a very profitable part of the server OEM portfolio. OEMs do not want to lose the opportunity to upsell I/O hardware and software solutions by quickly commoditizing the I/O by putting 10GbE as the standard (free) I/O solution.
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